'Tis the season to be sage-like, even if you can't be jolly. As 2009 closes and 2010 awakens, researchers both looked back at what we did and made educated guesses at would we might see.Gosh, I thought so - The U.S. Census Bureau counted its numbers and came to the conclusion that newspaper revenue went down -- in 2008. The mid-December federal report only tracks economic statistics for the previous year. And that's bad enough -- the industry's revenues dropped 8.3% to $43.9 billion. A year ago the "bad" news as a 2.7% decline, which most publishers would welcome today.
There is alway more to Census Bureau reports than the headlines, however. For instance, the second biggest drop from the publishing sector was in greeting cards (7%). That probably is less a sign that Hallmark has lost its humor than another indicator of the Internet's impact. Speaking of which, Web search portals were up 18.9%, which was actually bad news for an industry that jumped 38.1% in 2006 and 25.1% in 2007. It may also be some consolation that the search portals generated about $29 billion less than newspapers did in 2008. Likewise, ad revenue for online publishers was only $4.6 billion. That was a 22.5 increase, but not like the 44% jump in 2006 nor the 27.9% increase in 2007.
We're all thumbs -- The Census Bureau also released its latest Statistical Abstract of the United States, packed as usual with trivia such as the number of students who carry guns to school (6% in 2007) and the health of the restaurant business ($453 billion and rising). My eye, however, was caught by the report that mobile phone texting more than doubled in 2008, the last year for which statistics were available. Simple text-messages (not Web browsing or e-mail) went from 48 billion in 2007 to 110 billion in 2008. That confirms the survey I am just now analyzing that shows text messaging increases as you adopt a more sophisticated phone. I had predicted the opposite. I'm paying a lot more attention to the value of text message alerts these days.
Oldies but goodies -- Two news activities made the Top 10 Internet activities among the 65+ crowd in 2008, according to Nielsen. Don't scoff -- 13% of the entire population is at least 65 years old and the number of seniors using the Web rose 55% over the past five years.
The top activity for seniors was e-mail, followed by maps, weather, their bills and all those photos of grandkids. But reading the general news online was No. 6 and reading business or financial news was No. 10. Like surprises? Facebook was the third most popular Internet destination for seniors, only topped by Google Search and Windows Media Player. More? Seniors are within 1/10 of a point from teens in the proportion of people who visit blogs and social networking sites.
The November Nielsen report should be a wake-up call to online editors and others who look at the Web and only think "young." Here's a huge, affluent and well-read market that is eager for useful information, loves to connect with others and puts news above YouTube. Gray hair sounds better than red ink.
Facebook or nothing -- As popular as it seems to be with senior citizens, the social network born in a Harvard dorm hit an important tipping point in 2009 with its original target audience. Anderson Analytics said Facebook is now not only the most popular social network service among the college-aged, but may be the only one that counts. Students polled in the 2009-2010 GenX2Z American College Student Survey overwhelmingly rated Facebook as "cool" (82% of males and 90% of females) and everything else as "lame." The lamest of the lame (31%) was mighty MySpace.
But the curious flip side to the Facebook finding was that 18-25 year olds are using all blogs and discussion boards less. Blog activity was down 5% among college students and use of discussion boards was down 8%.
For now, the findings bode poorly for publishers hoping to establish local social networking sites. But, as the researchers noted, rapid technology changes make accurate predictions impossible. I think it might be worth looking east, however, to the mobile social networking sites booming in Europe. Networks such as Loopt, Aka Aki, MobiLuck and Peperonity allow you to read the profiles of others within a few yards (make that meters) of you. If that's not a cyber party, what is? (Check this video to see what I mean).
Smart phone war? -- Enough of what was, what can we expect in 2010? How about a heated battle between the companies that want to put our news on their little hand-held computers? In 2009, Apple's iPhone stole the show, even though RIM had a lot more Blackberries out there. Google's Android is in the limelight for 2010. When comScore asked smartphone shoppers which type of phone they might buy in the next three months, 20% said iPhones but 17% chose the newcomer. It helps that Android is available on a variety of phones from all the major cell phone service providers, while the iPhone is both Apple and AT&T exclusive. ComScore's research also showed that Android owners use their phones almost identically to iPhone owners, except the Apple crowd fires off more e-mail.
The Great Nielsoni -- The top crystal ball award for December has to go to Nielsen, which released a big packet of Future Trends in Media. The summary is that 2010 will be a consumer's market for digital media on three screens - TV, PC and mobile. Nielsen said to watch for the number of TVs to exceed the number of people in the U.S. while close to half of all video is watched on a computer screen. On the mobile front, 3G networks will grow and 4G (about as fast as broadband) will make a noticeable introduction.
Five key trends -- The Nielsen seers said to watch for five trends that will have major impact on the media business over the next three to five years. All TV content will be available on any type of screen. The "net neutrality" court battle over whether Internet service providers can control what flows through their digital pipes could dramatically change the online world. With the next wave of more powerful phones, the researchers said, it will be common for people to not only receive information wherever they happen to be, but to share it with others. In the same vein, tiered pricing may make those who download data-intensive content pay more than simple e-mailers. Interactive TV could take even more time out of the American day than the addictive tube does now. Finally, the hardware will dazzle -- combining gaming, TV, computer and who knows what else into a device that looks something like a TV.
It really is their world -- In 2010 and beyond, Nielsen said, the Web will be driven by the audience rather than the content providers. Advertisers will be metrics-crazy and marketers will combine all sorts of media to reach a fickle audience. Research will be king -- the more you know about the audience, the better chance you have of keeping a piece of the pie.
The privacy eye -- That last trend -- getting the goods on the audience -- is bound to keep both researchers and reporters busy in the foreseeable future. How deep should a company dig into a customer's life, even if they asked for the "service?" Do journalists dig into the same data? And who keeps track of what the government is doing with the numbers? It's going to be an interesting 2010.
Ready for the mobile world? That's OK, few of us are. That's why I'm trying to assemble a list of mobile editors at newspapers. We are trying to put together a spring brainstorming gathering at the Reynolds Journalism Institute. If you know an editor charged with delivering the news via cell, e-mail me at bentleycl@missouri.edu.
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